Costanza's Formula 1 Season 2007 Picks

[Costanza]

The new Formula 1 season starts this weekend and I'm going to give it my best to try and make some profit out of it. Been quite succesful in capping the F1 last couple years but this is the first time I'm going to keep track of my statistics from race 1.

Not sure at the moment if it's wise to make a bet on the 1st race of the new season. Gonna do some homework on this weekends race before I make up my mind.

back later...

 

[Costanza]

Pick 01: Pole Position For Massa [No Bet if Pole is for Raikkonen] @ 2.03 (1 Unit)

No doubt that Ferrari is favorite to take te pole position, they did great during the test period. They also still have the advantage over the other teams with the Bridgestone tyres with a lot more experiance from last year. Massa did great in the 1st couple test sessions and announced that he's driving with a lot of confidence and going for the pole. He has allready proven last year that he's a more then capable driver. Raikkonen is not to be underestimated when it comes to qualifications, but every driver needs time to adjust to a new car. I think there's a good chance that Ferrari will dominate this weekend and see value in them taking the Pole Position later on.

Pick 02: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.40 (1 Unit)

If there is 1 pilot to look out for it's kovalainen, one of the most talented drivers around that could surprise this season. Fisichella never came close to Alonso last season and never really proved himself the last couple years. Renault had some problems yesterday that should be solved by now. Kovalainen was on occasions faster then his team mate during the test season and also put up a better time during the 1st session in Melbourne. He shouldn't be such an underdog and is in my opinion worth taking to finish ahead of Fisico in the qualification session

 

[Costanza]

Pick 01: Pole Position For Massa [No Bet if Pole is for Raikkonen] @ 2.03 (1 Unit) ----> NO BET (+0 units)
Pick 02: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.40 (1 Unit) ----> LOST (-1 Unit)

Raikkonen got the pole and Ferrari dominated with almost half a second on alonso and the rest of the field. Massa had some technical problems and was not able to drive his quick lap unfortunately.
Kovalainen didn't make it to round 3 in the qualif session and admitted afterwards that he just wasn't fast enoug during the session.

Off to a bad start in the 1st race but I'm still betting small units, and the season is still long.

Updated Record:
Picks = 2
Won / No Bet / Lost = 0 / 1 / 1 (0%)
Units Bet = 2 units
Units Return = 1 unit
Average Stake = 1 units
Profit = - 1 Unit
ROI = 50%

gonna have a look into the race later on...

 

[Costanza]

Pick 03: Fastest Lap for Raikkonen [If Fastest lap is for Massa = No Bet] @ 1.733 (1 Unit)

So far it is obvious that Ferrari has got the fastest car in the field at the moment. With their car being used to the bridgestone tyres they have yet anoher small advantage om their opponents. I feel confident that a Ferrari will clock the fastest time in the race. I favor Raikkonen who's starting in pole position to do this. I'm also taking Massa as a no bet backdoor security bet. (odds available at bwin)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 04:Race H2H Alexander Wurz - Jenson Button @ 1.80 (1 Unit)

This one looks like a very interesting Head 2 Head bet. Jenson Button in the Honda is starting 1 place in front of Alexander Wurz in the Williams at the start of the race. Button is known as a pilot who has a very good start in most races. So I wouldn't be surprised if he could win a couple places in the first round. Another factor is Massa who is starting directly behind Wurz. With a high probability of him overtaking Wurz in the 1st round things could look a lot different within the 1st lap. From all the interviews of the last couple weeks, it looks like they still haven't got 100% confidence in the reliability of the car. Jenson is defenatly the favorite to win this head 2 head, the 1.80 odds on this are available on expekt.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 05: Race Top 8 Finish Kovalainen [Retire = lose 1/2] @ 1.905 (1 Unit)

Kovalainen qualifyd only in 13th place and stated that the car was good but he just failed to get the maximum out of it. During the testing season thing went good for Renault and there were no problems with the reliability of the car who performed at its best in the 'race simulations' they ran.
The Renault is better then a lot of cars in front of him and Kovalainen should normally be able to pick up the pace during the race and gain quite some places. We should normally see some agressive racing from the young Renault driver and If he can manage to stay out of trouble he should be able to finish in the points.
odds are combined from Kovalainen to finish in top 8 @ 2.37 (Bet365) and Kovalainen to retire @ 2.55 (Bwin)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 06: place Massa after lap 1 = worse then 12th [12th place = lose 1/2] @ 1.97 (1 Unit)

So Massa had some technical problems and has to start from the 16th place. The general tactics when one of the better cars in the field has to start form behind is to feul him up for a long first stint. I expect this to be the case with Massa in the race. So he'll start with probably a lot of fuel and 2 good starters in front of him (The renault has the reputation of being a car with good starts and Button is also known for it)
This way it won't be that easy for him to make a dream start winning more then 4 places. I would really be surprised if the was able to go from 16th to 11th place after the 1st lap. odds available at Bet365

 

[Costanza]

Pick 07: Race H2H Kovalainen - Rosberg @ 1.66 (0.5 Unit)

Rosberg is starting 1 place ahead, but he should be no match to Kovalainen in this race. With the idea that it is more probable for the williams to retire this looks like another valueable bet to me. Only going for half a unit because it is never wise in Formula 1 to place too much on 1 driver. odds available at Bet365

 

[chriscol]

i like your Button over Wurz pick (you can get it at 1.90 at pinny)

BOL for the race

 

[Costanza]

newsflash: Massa changed his engine and moves to the last place on the grid,
Guess 1 bet will be a defenate winner allready =)

Button over Wurz was around 1.76 when the line came out at pinny, strange line movement.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 01: Pole Position For Massa [No Bet if Pole is for Raikkonen] @ 2.03 (1 Unit) --> NO BET (+0 units)
Pick 02: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.40 (1 Unit) --> LOST (-1 Unit)
Pick 03: Fastest Lap for Raikkonen [If Massa = No Bet] @ 1.733 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.733 units)
Pick 04:Race H2H Alexander Wurz - Jenson Button @ 1.80 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.80 units)
Pick 05: Race Top 8 Finish Kovalainen [Retire = lose 1/2] @ 1.905 (1 Unit) --> LOST (-1 Unit)
Pick 06: Massa after lap 1 = worse then 12th [12th place = -1/2] @ 1.97 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.97 units)
Pick 07: Race H2H Kovalainen - Rosberg @ 1.66 (0.5 Unit) --> LOST (-0.5 Unit)

Got lucky with Alexander Wurz being knocked out
Was surprides how few cars had technical problems (only 2). Kovalainen made a couple rookie mistakes and only finished 10th, looking at the bright side it's a good thing I reduced the stakes on the last bet.

Picks = 7
Won / No Bet / Lost = 3 / 1 / 3 (50%)
Units Bet = 6.5 units
Units Return = 6.503 unit
Average Stake = 1 units
Profit = +0.003 Units
ROI = 100%

Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units

back with more in 3 weeks...

 

[Costanza]

Malaysian Grand Prix 2007 is comming up this weekend, gonna have a look around and see if there is any value in the early odds.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 08: Number of Classified Drivers in Race (Under 15.5) @ 2.00 (1.5 Units)

I see a lot of value in this bet and I'm making it a 1.5 unit play.
There are a lot of factors for this Grand Prix that indicate quite some retirements. The first Fact is the weather conditions, this is one of the seasons toughest races for the cars and the drivers with extremely hot weather conditions. They are also expecting some rain during the weekend which always produces a lot of retirements because of the high amount of spins. Also it is the 2nd race of the season and last GP in Australia there were only 5 retirements, so a lot of drivers will use the same engine and have a slighty bigger chance to have some sort of faillure.
When looking at the statistics we see that there never finished more then 15 cars in the 8 year history of the Malaysian Grand Prix !
Over that time period the average Number of Classified Drivers in the GP is only 13.25 At the moment skybet.com is offering 2.00 odds on Under 15.5 Race Finishers where most others only offer around 1.70.
No doubt the odds or the total will drop as time is passing by so I'm taking on this early bet for this weekends race

 

[Costanza]

Forgot to mention that most of previous GP's in Malaysia only had 20 starters, so the stats on the previous finishers might look a bit too extreme.
75% of the previous races in Malaysia had 7 or more retirements, so it's still in our favor.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 09: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.95 (0.7 Unit)

I'm not giving up on Hekki Kovalainen for a price of 2.95
Australia was a bad start, with a lack of experience on a new track where he didn't get much change to learn the track because of some technical problems during the important practice sessions he was unable to come close to his team mate. Looking for revenge on a track that he was able to get to know the last week he should be able to compete with Fisichella. Kovalainen actually was the fastest during the last testing day in sepang. 2.95 is just too big of a price to pass on for what I believe is still one of the most talented drivers in the F1. Test sessions are being driven later on and these might affect the odds if he's able to put up a good performance. Fisichella likes this track and had some hood performances in the past so I slightly reduce the stakes. I believe the times during testing will be closer then expected and the odds might drop giving us a chance to take the middle.
odds are available at expekt

 

[Costanza]

Pick 10: Qualify H2H Massa vs Alonso @ 1.50 (1 Unit)

Ferrari and especially Filippe Massa has been dominating the weekend again during this GP. At the moment there is no doubt that they have the fastest car and they should be able to get the Pole Position if they can stay away from techical problems. Alonso and mclaren has been doing alot of testing and did not really bother to go for a top spot in the practice sessions. It will take more then 3 weeks to shorten the gap between them and Ferrari who are favorite to take the pole. Massa to qualify ahead of Alonso @ 1.50 looks valuable. Available at Betway

 

[Costanza]

Pick 08: Number of Classified Drivers in Race (Under 15.5) @ 2.00 (1.5 Units) --> Tomorrow
Pick 09: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.95 (0.7 Units) --> WON (+1.365 units)
Pick 10: Qualify H2H Massa vs Alonso @ 1.50 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.50 units)

A good way to start the weekend with a 2 - 0 in the Qualif session. Massa on pole and Kovalainen managed to drive a slightly better lap then Fisichella. Will have a look at what's available for the race later on.

updated record:

Picks = 9
Won / No Bet / Lost = 5 / 1 / 3 (62.5% winners)
Units Bet = 8.2 units
Units Return = 10.068 unit
Average Stake = 1 units
Profit = +1.868 Units
ROI = 132.5%

Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 2 - 0 | +1.865 Units
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units

 

[Costanza]

Pick 11: Race Top 8 Finish Kovalainen @ 2.55 (1 Unit)

Once again I'm rolling with Kovalainen, only because the odds are again way too high. 2.55 for him to finish in the top 8 defenatly has enough value to get involved. Starting from 11th place he's in 'pole position' amoungst the cars that have to option to choose the amount of fuel to start the race with wich is an important factor. Kovalainen failed to drive his best sector times in 1 lap so there is still some improvement possible in the lap times. The Renault was able to set the fastest speed limit during the qualif which could come in very usefull during the race to overtake some opponents. In australia he nearly finished in the points after driving a really bad race. He's improved by now and I see him taking a top 8 place if he can stay away from technical problems. Bwin is offering 2.55 which is a big price. (betway only offering 1.70 on this)

 

[Costanza]

Pick 12: No Safety car during the race @ 2.00 (0.4 Units)

This is a wide open circuit and there is not much chance of a car blocking the road so the safety car has to come out on the track. There is no immediate rain reported for during the race so unless there's a big crash during the start with multiple cars there will probably be no need for a safety car. And in case there would be a safety car, it would probably help winning the Under 15.5 finishers 1.5 unit bet. 2.00 odds are available at Betdirect.

Pick 13: 1st car to retire Honda @ 15.0 (0.10 Units)

This is another small bet were the odds are just way to high, Honda is not doing good at all. they have a lot of difficulties with the car. Barrichello had to use the spare car to qualify and changed engines and starts from the last spot. In an interview it sounded like he had allready given up on this GP admitting the car is just really really bad at the moment. The entire weekend has so far been a disaster and I wouldn't be surprised if one of their cars was the first to retire. the odds of 14 to 1 are available at sportingodds and worth the rist of the absolute minimum stake.

 

[Costanza]

Pick 08: Number of Classified Drivers in Race (Under 15.5) @ 2.00 (1.5 Units) --> LOST (- 1.5 units)
Pick 09: Qualify H2H Fisichella vs Kovalainen @ 2.95 (0.7 Units) --> WON (+1.365 units)
Pick 10: Qualify H2H Massa vs Alonso @ 1.50 (1 Unit) --> WON (+0.50 units)
Pick 11: Race Top 8 Finish Kovalainen @ 2.55 (1 Unit) --> WON (+1.55 units)
Pick 12: No Safety car during the race @ 2.00 (0.4 Units) --> WON (+0.40 units)
Pick 13: 1st car to retire Honda @ 15.0 (0.10 Units) --> LOST (- 0.10 units)

Good overall GP weekend!
Only 4 retirements in the race, so most cars seem to be very reliable. I will look into some combo bets for drivers to finish the race next week.
Kovalainen got it done this week and Mclaren showed that it's not going to be all about ferrari this year.

updated record:

Picks = 13
Won / No Bet / Lost = 7 / 1 / 5 (58% winners)
Units Bet = 11.2 units
Units Return = 13.418 unit
Average Stake = 0.90 units
Profit = +2.218 Units
ROI = 120%

Race 02 Malaysian GP Record: 4 - 2| +2.215 Units (+47% ROI)
Race 01 Australian GP Record: 3 - 3 | +0.003 Units (+0% ROI)

More to come next weekend !